Blue Square Leagues Weekend Preview
Alan Alger from league sponsors Blue Square highlights the best bets from this weekend’s action in the Blue Square Premier. We also look at the prices for the Quarter Finals of the FA Trophy and the ‘bet of the week’ in the Blue Square South.Exactly a week after their defeat at Luton Town, Blue Square Premier leaders Oxford United enjoyed a much better Tuesday evening with a 1-0 win over Rushden & Diamonds. The manner of the victory, a last minute penalty, will still leave some doubts as to their title credentials but they are certainly in the driving seat once again. Chris Wilder’s team were cut to 4/7 as Luton and York could only play out a goalless draw on the same night. Second placed Stevenage had a midweek break but drifted to 4/1 all the same, Luton move into third favouritism at 6/1 with York City drifting slightly to 13/2. After that away defeat Rushden are out to 20/1 and fifth in the betting, which now looks to just concern the top four.
The top three teams in the Blue Square Premier are all in FA Trophy action this weekend as the competition reaches the Quarter Final stage. The trio are all in the position of match favourites despite a varying range of tasks thrown up by the draw. The shortest priced favourites are Stevenage who welcome the only non-Premier team remaining in the draw – Workington – to Broadhall Way. The North West based side have already shocked AFC Wimbledon and Rushden on their path to the Quarter Finals and can be backed at 9/1 to add a third big scalp to their list. Stevenage are 3/10 to negotiate this tricky fixture on the path to what would be a third final in four years. Oxford welcome Kidderminster to the Kassam Stadium and are available at 8/13 to win the tie at the first attempt. The U’s are yet to beat Kiddy in two league fixtures this season and with the fear that the home side will rest players the sensible thing to do value-wise is back an away win at 4/1. York City, minus the services of leading scorer Richard Brodie, make the trip across the country to Barrow. The over reliance on their back-up strikers could prove City’s downfall at a price of Evens. Barrow are not exactly prolific themselves at the moment and a speculative punt on a goalless draw would be the advice at 8/1. Salisbury City and Tamworth meet at the RayMac Stadium for the second time in five days and after a 1-0 home victory on Tuesday, Salisbury can double up here at a nice price of 10/11.
The key question in the Blue Square Premier’s ‘game of the day’ is – can Luton cope with the pressure and expectation of the home crowd to beat AFC Wimbledon? The Hatters are 4/6 favourites to do so but cautious punters will point to a home record which has already seen them fail when odds-on seven times this season. AFC Wimbledon have travelled to five of the top 12 in the division and have four wins and a draw to their name, conceding only one goal in the process. That points to extremely poor value on a home win at 4/6, regardless of the importance for Richard Money’s team. In fact the importance could play into the hands of Wimbledon backers who will see anything as a bonus with no expectation as 4/1 outsiders. Another away team appearing at a decent price are Rushden who visit fellow play-off hopefuls Mansfield Town. Justin Edinburgh’s team are 19/10 to gain a valuable three points which would increase the lead they hold over their hosts in the table. Cambridge United have just two away wins to their name in this season’s league campaign but are as short as 17/10 to win at Forest Green. The 2-2 home draw with AFC Wimbledon put an end to a six game losing league run, but it’s my view that the result may have papered over the cracks. It’s important to remember that Cambridge thumped this weekend’s opponents 7-0 in the reverse fixture back in September, but I like the look of a revenge laden home win at 6/4.
The best bet of the weekend is down in the Blue Square South where second placed Braintree Town host a Bromley side in poor form. The Iron (as the home side are known) have been installed as 4/5 favourites for the game, but I think that underestimates their chance of winning and represents very good value. They’ve won ten home games from 16 already this season which would put their true price at around 8/13, when you factor in Bromley’s form (without a win in their last four, including three defeats) to that equation it becomes a confident selection.
Author: Alan Alger
