Porto v Arsenal Preview

By Team BlueSq.com on 16 February 2010 at 11:30

Alan Alger from Blue Square picks his way through the raft of markets on offer for Arsenal’s visit to Porto in the ‘last 16′ of the Champions League:

When Arsenal were paired with Porto after safely negotiating their way through the Champions League group stages many pundits thought the, then in-form, Gunners had one of the easier routes to the Quarter Finals. This afternoon’s news of the players that failed to make the plane to Portugal makes worrying reading for anybody that took advantage of Arsenal’s early quotes of 13/10 for the first leg. Arsene Wenger’s team have drifted to an alarming 15/8 and the slide may not stop there. At least five of Wenger’s first choice XI won’t be travelling to Porto.

All this coincides with a run that has seen the North London giants win only once in their last five matches. That 1-0 home success against Liverpool papering over the cracks left by big defeats at the hands of Manchester United and Chelsea. Goals were never hard to come by earlier in the season, but they are now on their most barren run of this campaign – just 3 goals in those five matches.

Porto have suffered three away defeats in Portugal’s top-flight which is hampering their ability to retain the title. They are solid (and unbeaten) at home though and possess an extremely tight defence which has seen only six teams score there all season. That’s the last thing Arsenal need as they try to rely on returning striker Nicklas Bendtner to lead the line. The ‘far from Great’ Dane is 15/2 to score first which illustrates what a bind his team are in. Temporary front-man Andrey Arshavin will not be taking part and long term absentee Robin Van Persie was not even in those early matchprice equations.

The main goal threat from the hosts should come from Falcao, who is the 11/2 favourite to break the deadlock. It’s a far from vintage Porto side but on their home patch against a team short on flair and attacking options, I could only bet one way here. If Porto’s continually shortening match odds (currently 6/4) put you off then we need to get with the view that the away side will struggle to score. Our special team market on Porto to ‘win to nil’ could be just the ticket and that makes plenty of appeal at 11/4.

Author: Alan Alger

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