Six Nations Round 3 Preview

By Team BlueSq.com on 26 February 2010 at 12:15

Wales v France – Friday 26th February 20.00

If you fancy a bet on France to cruise though yet another Six Nations encounter this weekend, look no further than Blue Square. You won’t find better odds anywhere else in the industry about ‘Les Bleus’ putting Wales to the sword at the Millennium stadium on Friday night, that’s not to say they won’t of course, that just means we feel the odds of them doing so don’t truly reflect their chances right now. For example, at 4/9 to win the match, we reckon 69% of the time the French would be too good for the Welsh if the same game was played out over and over again. At 7/4, we give the home side about a 36% chance. Take a stroll down your local high street and you’ll find the visitors are far more strongly fancied (one firm gives France at 75% chance or 1/3 in terms of odds), which of course makes a big difference as far as the payout at the end is concerned.

The impact of taking such a stance can be seen in the other markets too. For example, we at Blue Square reckon think that if France do win it won’t be by many, therefore we’re offering 4-5 they get the win covering a five point handicap. Have the same bet elsewhere and you’ll be giving up at least six or seven. A French winning margin of 13 or more points is on offer at 7/4, and because we don’t think there’s much between the teams, that also means there are some big prices available for the French players to score the first try. Mathieu Bastareaud (14/1), Yannick Jauzion (16/1) and Clement Poitrenaud (16/1) to name but three, are all top price with us.

A defeat for Wales will all but end their Six Nations aspirations for another year. A third consecutive win for France puts them in the driving seat with only two rounds to go. Make no mistake this will be tight, after all only once in the last year visits have France won by more than five points in Cardiff.

Italy v Scotland – Saturday 27th February 13.30

Although very much third on the list in terms of games to watch this weekend, there are a number of questions to be answered in Rome on Saturday. Were Italy good in round two or were England bad? Can the ‘Azzurri’ win a game without Sergio Parisse? How wounded are Scotland having thrown away the win against Wales? What are the odds on neither team scoring a try? The answer to the last one is 12/1, the lowest ‘no tryscorer’ price across all three games, and had John Barclay and Max Evans not crossed against Wales, that price would no doubt be in single figures right now. The Italians have shown a complete lack of attacking intent in both of their opening matches, preferring to ruck and mall in the middle of the pitch in the hope of a referee’s whistle in their favour. Despite not registering against France in week one, the Scot’s on the other hand have at least been having a go at their opponents in the tournament so far, and that alone suggests to me they’ll score the tries required to prevail in what has in recent years become a traditional wooden spoon decider.

The visitors are 10/11 to cover a three-point handicap and 4/7 to win the match, with the Italians 11/8 for a repeat their 23-20 success in this match two years ago. Looking at the special markets, Johnnie Beattie and Dan Parks were the best players on the pitch for about an hour of the Wales match, and both feature prominently in the betting for Man of the Match at 12/1 and 10/1 respectively. 100/1 surprise Alessandro Zanni picked up that award against England for his tireless performance at number eight, and he leads the Italian side of the market at 14/1 this time round.

England v Ireland – Saturday 27th February 16.00

Expect much to be made of Jonny Wilkinson’s kicking on Saturday evening. England’s number 10 missed three penalties as well as a conversion in Rome, but slotted six from six during England’s win over Wales at Twickenham a week previously. That leaves a difficult conundrum to solve for those wanting to get stuck into this encounter. We make Wilko just 5/2 to once again miss three or more place kicks at goal, an outcome which would surely cost England the points in what will be another tight encounter at Twickenham, while a 100% kicking performance is on offer at 3/1. That bet would have ‘copped’ against Wales in week one, and with the Mitre ball he used in Rome now replaced by the Gilbert, I fully expect Jonny to be back on song in front of his beloved Twickenham crowd.

The number 10 spotlight doesn’t end though, as Irish fly-half Jonny Sexton will be under the microscope too. Not many players are considered to be better than Ronan O’Gara in that role these days, but Ireland coach Declan Kidney appears to subscribe to that thought. Sexton is slight odds against at 21/20 to outscore Wilkinson (19/20) with 8/1 the price of the two 10’s scoring the same amount of points.

It couldn’t be much tighter in the match betting either, where England shade favouritism at 8/11, Ireland are priced at 21/20, and the draw is at 18/1. England wingers Ugo Monye and Mark Cueto head up the first tryscorer market at 11/1 a piece, but don’t worry about either scenario spoiling your bets, as we’re refunding losing stakes if they do (see below). For Ireland, injury to Rob Kearny gives Leicester full-back Geordan Murphy (18/1) another international shot against opponents he’ll know well from playing in the Guinness Premiership, and with an abundance of kickers taking to the pitch don’t be surprised to see at least one drop goal in the match at 4/6.

Six Nations Cashback!

This week we’ll be refunding all losing First Tryscorer bets* if the either of the following players scores the first try in their match:

Shane Williams or Lee Byrne – Wales v France

Sean Lamont or Simon Danielli – Italy v Scotland


Mark Cueto or Ugo Monye – England v Ireland

*Max refund £250 per customer

Author: Neil Lucas

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