Six Nations: Week Two Preview
Some will have more to celebrate than others this Valentine’s weekend as the romantic cities of Rome, Paris and, errm, Cardiff prepare to host their first matches of the 2010 Six Nations Championship. With victory at Murrayfeld last Sunday, France have strengthened their position at the head of the Outright market, and are now 6-5 to take the title from 13-8. It’s not often a team wins by 18 points and drifts in the market, but that’s been the case with Ireland this week following a largely un-inspiring defeat of Italy, and it’s England who are the big movers in the market at 5-2 having seen off Wales last Saturday. Already the tournament has the look of a three-horse race about it, with Wales out to 16-1, Scotland 100-1, and Italy out with the washing at 1000-1.Hopeless romantics who have cleared their diaries (intentionally or otherwise) for an uninterrupted weekend of rugby are in for treat of their own as the second weekend has conjured up some intriguing match-ups for us all to enjoy. Anyone feeling weak at the knees however may be better off flicking over to the figure skating for a few hours, as I doubt we’ll see much love and affection out on the pitch. Let’s take a look at the weekend’s fixtures…
Wales v Scotland
Week two kicks off with week one’s losers Wales and Scotland both aiming to get their campaigns off the mark in Cardiff. Welsh coach Warren Gatland this week expressed the importance of this one claiming it was a “must-win game”, and at 2-9 for the win and 10-11 to cover a -10 handicap, you’d have to think his team will bounce back accordingly. Scotland full-back Chris Paterson will be winning his 100th international cap when the teams run out, and of the range of specials we’ve come up with, my favourite is for the Edinburgh man to score exactly nine points at 7-2. That bet would have come up trumps last week, and with his team always struggling to score tries, just three penalties will again suffice. Those who fancy the momentous 100th cap to spark CP into life, he’s 10-1 to be crowned ‘Man of the Match’, and 5-6 to kick all his attempts at goal, oh and by the way he hasn’t missed a kick in the tournament since 2008. For Wales, James Hook was impressive during his team’s second half fight back at Twickenham, and he looks a decent candidate to be awarded Man of the Match at 10-1, although Shane Williams and Stephen Jones (both 8-1) will want to have a say it that too. By all accounts Wales should be too strong here, but is 10 points a bit of a steep handicap to cover? I’ll let you decide.
France v Italy
The tie of the round, in fact, no, the tie of the tournament, sees tournament ‘jollies’ France face Ireland, where the prospect of centres Mathieu Bastareaud and Brian O’Driscoll locking horns is just too good to miss. A win for ‘Les Bleus’ is a best-price 1-2 with us, but many will fancy the chances of the Irish in Paris. You can get 13-8 for the away win but a +5 handicap at 10-11 might be the better play on this occasion, as the win rather than the performance will be all that matters. That’s on the proviso the Irish defence can keep the ball away from Vincent Clerc of course – the Toulouse wide man has seven tries in five matches against them, including a hat-trick two years ago. Unsurprisingly, Clerc heads up the First Tryscorer market as the 10-1 favourite, but it’s very competitive with players on both sides more than capable of slipping a tackle and sliding over in the forecast freezing Parisian temperatures. Irish hopes will rest once again with talisman Brian O’Driscoll who is 14-1 to score first and 4-1 to score a try any time, but look out for big number eight Jamie Heaslip, who is 22-1 having notched first against the Italians last time out. Be on the look out for drop goals too as messers Trinh-Duc, Parra and O’Gara will be eyeing up the posts for the whole 80 minutes. We go 4-6 there’s at least one successful attempt in the match, 11-10 there isn’t.
Italy v England
There’ll be a Valentine’s Day massacre at the Stadio Flaminio on Sunday if a Riki Flutey-inspired England can produce some flowing rugby against the tournament minnows. Kane Robertson, the ‘Azzurri’s’ only tryscorer against Ireland, has conveniently been dropped to the bench for the arrival of Martin Johnson’s men, and although experienced lock Marco Bortolami returns in the scrum, I still expect England to rack up plenty of points against some toothless opposition. 10-1 is on offer for the three lions to smash through the 50 points barrier (which they’ve done three times previously in the tournament), and they are giving up 14 points on the handicap at 10-11. You won’t get rich backing the three lions just to win the match at 1-9, but if your lucky their might be some money to be made in the rather one-sided market for Man of the Match. Jonny Wilkinson didn’t have his finest game at Twickenham against Wales but with plenty of penalties likely to come his way he’s still good enough to be our 9-1 favourite. Flutey, Lewis “Mad-Dog” Moody and Delon Armitage are next in the list at 10-1 a piece, two-try hero James Haskell is on offer at 12-1, as is Matthew Tait, who perhaps didn’t get the credit he deserved for a solid performance against the Welsh. Whatever happens in Rome, if England aren’t top of the table come by the time Valentine’s Day is over, the England management team might be falling out of love with Martin Johnson in a big way!
Cashback!
This week we’ll be refunding all losing First Tryscorer bets* if the following players score the first try in their match:
Lee Byrne – Wales v Scotland, 13th Feb 2.00pm
Vincent Clerc – France v Ireland, 13th Feb 4.30pm
Mark Cueto – Italy v England, 14th Feb 2.30pm
*Max refund £250 per customer
Author: Neil Lucas
